Comet May Hit Mars

[Doc]

"Have you heard?
It's in the stars
Next July we collide with Mars
Well, did you evah?
What a swell party this is!"

http://astronomyaggregator.com/solar-system/large-comet-to-buzz-mars-impact-possible/

Discovered on January 3, C/2013 A1 Siding Spring was typical of comet finds: a dim moving speck on a photograph. However, recent observations suggest that Comet Siding Spring could be extremely interesting indeed – its current orbit brings it only 37,000 km from Mars.
The discovery conditions of C/2013 A1 indicated that the comet was an intrinsically bright object on a retrograde orbit through the inner Solar System. Translated: a large object moving at very high speeds relative to the planets. The brightness of the comet suggests an object between 10-50 km in diameter, similar to that of Comet Hale-Bopp, which dazzled the Northern Hemisphere for 18 months in 1996-1997. If we were to apply the Torino Impact Scale to Mars, C/2013 A1 would be rated a 7.

[majicbar]

This is still well outside of the orbits of Phobos and Deimos, the moons of Mars, but what if the comet were to upset their orbits? Clearly there will be further orbital calculations between now and the encounter, I saw one comment that one of the orbital solutions put it closer to 300,000 km, but still it may be well too early to forecast the actual path it takes because a comet which outgasses is subject to altering it's own trajectory with this mass wasting effect.

[CasperParks]

An increasing number of comets flying around out there.

[Doc]

From The Economist:

The hits keep coming Feb 28th 2013, 18:58 by O.M.







http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2013/02/blogs/babbage/20130302_stp510.jpg

"...Given the unusual speed of the comet (which is moving so fast that it may well be coming from outside the solar system—cool upon cool) and the fact that it is traveling the wrong way round the sun, from a planet’s point of view, Mr Plait estimates that its impact should yield a blast equivalent to that of a billion megatons of TNT. It would be an event on the same sort of scale as the impact that drove the dinosaurs extinct 65m years ago. If it really is that big, and if the comet were to hit the side of Mars facing Earth (it seems that it might do, but it might also hit the far side), then the blast could well be visible to the nakeThat does not mean it would not have scientists salivating. Observing such an impact, which might leave a crater hundreds of kilometres across, would be a huge scientific boon.

<snip>


The cratering process would be interesting to geologists. Its aftermath would be fascinating to astrobiologists. There is a lot of ice frozen into the Martian crust. The heat of an enormous impact would melt a huge amount of it. If, as some believe, there are microbes living deep under the Martian surface, such a burst of warm, wet conditions over a substantial chunk of the planet would give them a brief chance to thrive at and close to the surface before the planet refroze. It’s not obvious how to observe such exciting developments, but there are surely already people at NASA and elsewhere giving thought to the matter. And they will have time. Parts of the surface and subsurface in the impact region, if there is an impact, will stay warm for decades.


In all likelihood there won’t be an impact. But even a near miss could be exciting and, for humankind’s emissaries on Mars, spectacular. The various spacecraft now orbiting Mars will get to see a fresh comet at very close quarters. There is a good chance that they will pass through the comet’s “coma”, the comparatively dense (though still remarkably thin) cloud of dust and gas that surrounds the solid nucleus.

<snip>

As Donald Yeomans of NASA says, "unless this comet completely fizzles, it should be extraordinary as seen with Mars-based assets".

Read the rest: http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/02/comet-headed-mars

[Dragonfire]

Wonder if the rovers have insurance..........

[Doc]

Wonder if the rovers have insurance..........

"I have Blah-Blah Insurance, so person come help!" :biggrin2:


"There are six calls ahead of us, Jimmy!"

[majicbar]

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/comet20130305.html

Comet to Make Close Flyby of Red Planet in October 2014
03.05.13

Comet 2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will make a very close approach to Mars in October 2014.

The latest trajectory of comet 2013 A1 (Siding Spring) generated by the Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., indicates the comet will pass within 186,000 miles (300,000 kilometers) of Mars and there is a strong possibility that it might pass much closer. The NEO Program Office's current estimate based on observations through March 1, 2013, has it passing about 31,000 miles (50,000 kilometers) from the Red Planet's surface. That distance is about two-and-a-half times that of the orbit of outermost moon, Deimos.

Scientists generated the trajectory for comet Siding Spring based on the data obtained by observations since October 2012. Further refinement to its orbit is expected as more observational data is obtained. At present, Mars lies within the range of possible paths for the comet and the possibility of an impact cannot be excluded. However, since the impact probability is currently less than one in 600, future observations are expected to provide data that will completely rule out a Mars impact.

During the close Mars approach the comet will likely achieve a total visual magnitude of zero or brighter, as seen from Mars-based assets. From Earth, the comet is not expected to reach naked eye brightness, but it may become bright enough (about magnitude 8) that it could be viewed from the southern hemisphere in mid-September 2014, using binoculars, or small telescopes.

Scientists at the Near-Earth Object Program Office estimate that comet Siding Spring has been on a more than a million-year journey, arriving from our solar system's distant Oort cloud. The comet could be complete with the volatile gases that short period comets often lack due to their frequent returns to the sun's neighborhood.

Rob McNaught discovered comet 2013 A1 Siding Spring on Jan. 3, 2013, at Siding Spring Observatory in Australia. A study of germane archival observations has unearthed more images of the comet, extending the observation interval back to Oct. 4, 2012.

NASA detects, tracks and characterizes asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground- and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them, and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

More information about asteroids and near-Earth objects is at: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch .

More information about asteroid radar research is at: http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/ .

More information about the Deep Space Network is at: http://deepspace.jpl.nasa.gov/dsn .

[majicbar]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2013_A1

C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) is an Oort cloud comet discovered on 3 January 2013 by Robert H. McNaught at Siding Spring Observatory using a 0.5-meter (20 in) Schmidt telescope.[1] Precovery images of the comet by the Catalina Sky Survey from 8 December 2012 were quickly found.[1] Observations by Leonid Elenin on 27 February 2013, suggested the comet might pass 0.000276 AU (41,300 km; 25,700 mi) from the center-point of Mars.[3] On 3 March 2013, Pan-STARRS precovery images from 4 October 2012 were announced that extended the observation arc to 148 days.[4] At the time of discovery the comet was 7.2 AU from the Sun and located in the constellation Lepus.

Mars impact risk

The comet will pass extremely close to Mars on 19 October 2014; there is even a small possibility that it could impact the planet.[2] With an observation arc of 148 days,[2] the nominal pass is 0.00035 AU (52,000 km; 33,000 mi) from the center-point of Mars.[2] Due to the uncertainty region, there is a small possibility that the comet will pass Mars as far away as 0.0021 AU (310,000 km; 200,000 mi).[2] The comet will pass Mars at a relative velocity of 56 km/s.[2] Estimates for the diameter of the nucleus have varied from 3[5] up to 50 km, meaning the energy of impact might reach 20 billion megatons at the upper limit.[6][7] C/2013 A1 probably has a nucleus comparable in size to Comet Hyakutake (~4 km).[8] The diameter of an impact crater would be roughly ten times the diameter of the comet's nucleus.[6] Using a Monte-Carlo method the comet shows roughly a 1 in 1250 chance (0.08%) of impacting Mars.

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013A1;cad=1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0#orb

Comment.....If the comets nucleus were as large as 50 km that would be one heck of a cratering event and would send a lot of Mars into solar orbit and causing a lot of chaos and havoc for many centuries to come.

[majicbar]

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/july/nasa-s-mars-spacecraft-maneuvers-to-prepare-for-close-comet-flyby/index.html#.U9XdwvldUfU

Latest calculation places the comet's closest approach at 82,000 miles, 130,000 km: plenty close enough to be causing NASA and ESA to move their spacecrafts orbits to the other side of Mars at the point of closest approach on October 19, 2014. With so many observational platforms so close to the comet, we will learn a gigantic bonus of information with little added cost. It will be a very interesting October.

http://mars.nasa.gov/comets/sidingspring/

[majicbar]

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/july/nasa-s-mars-spacecraft-maneuvers-to-prepare-for-close-comet-flyby/index.html#.U9XdwvldUfU

Latest calculation places the comet's closest approach at 82,000 miles, 130,000 km: plenty close enough to be causing NASA and ESA to move their spacecrafts orbits to the other side of Mars at the point of closest approach on October 19, 2014. With so many observational platforms so close to the comet, we will learn a gigantic bonus of information with little added cost. It will be a very interesting October.

http://mars.nasa.gov/comets/sidingspring/October is here and the comet approaches. It should be some interesting viewing and there may be some resources to help watch it:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/17/comet-mars-watch-live-feed_n_6003812.html