Predictions for 2021

[pontificator]

The predictions thread has become a bit of a tradition, I'm starting it just before 2021 hits so that people have more of a head-start this time around.

I'd say that a sound track called "Bad things - you ain't seen nothin' yet" would be most fitting for 2021, if it existed.

(Well, there was plenty of war in 2020, climate mayhem wasn't quite as bad as I thought it could have been, but it was still pretty bad. An irritated alien popped by some days back, so that gives a full trifecta from my area.)

[calikid]

Predictions for 2021.
The COVID19 vaccine turns the tide, the reported numbers of infected & hospitalized continually shrink until the numbers are smaller than seasonal Flu.
.
Small businesses, who made a great sacrifice to keep us safe during trying times, resume commerce and give the economy a much needed boost.
.
The new racially balanced US Federal Government staffing recently installed gives the American public renewed confidence in the words "all men are created equal", ushering in a era of domestic peace and prosperity.
.
The USA, conquering the division within, once again emerges on the world stage as a friend to other countries that respect the ideals of peaceful co-existence and human rights.
.
Efforts to reduce Global Warming begin to have an impact, fewer Hurricanes and Wild Fires of smaller magnitude are noted throughout the world.
.
Reunion tours by Led Zeppelin and/or Bachman Turner Overdrive (BTO) fuel a return to safe massive stadium venue Rock-'N-Roll concerts. You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet!

[pontificator]

I suspect it won't be too much longer before things go south, just a bit of illustration where China is currently at: https://youtu.be/X7m3Jcmhat4
Although that is the Indian Propaganda arm, they are pretty sharp.

As unrest bites, the movement of goods will continue to worsen, resulting in increasing impact on Vaccine supplies. To the background of that narrative, governments will increasingly lock down.
Overall, I suspect matters will revert towards the state of trade in the 19th century.

If here's something you've always wanted, I'd get it now. Keep in mind things can go really bad, regardless of other factors, due to natural disasters. So having essentials, and the ability to continue in a no-support environment is always prudent.

[Wally]

Once Biden becomes president things should get better. However Trump will likely go down in history as one of America's worst presidents.

[pontificator]

Could be an interesting few days coming up. I remember some time back in the past a comment about "the last elected president", to be present during a particularly turbulent period of history. Given we are in that period, if Biden survives the inauguration, then he would probably be the last elected president. Otherwise we end up in the weird situation where trump was the last elected president, but Kamala Harris becomes a non-elected president.

Not quite sure how that would work though, would the states have to retain Trump in a caretaker capacity until matters were sorted out? Or can Kamala be sworn in on inauguration day if Biden is taken out before then or dies from excitement on the date?
(Does the equivalent of the "designated survivor" interim period happen under those circumstances?)

[calikid]

Could be an interesting few days coming up. I remember some time back in the past a comment about "the last elected president", to be present during a particularly turbulent period of history. Given we are in that period, if Biden survives the inauguration, then he would probably be the last elected president. Otherwise we end up in the weird situation where trump was the last elected president, but Kamala Harris becomes a non-elected president.

Not quite sure how that would work though, would the states have to retain Trump in a caretaker capacity until matters were sorted out? Or can Kamala be sworn in on inauguration day if Biden is taken out before then or dies from excitement on the date?
(Does the equivalent of the "designated survivor" interim period happen under those circumstances?)

Interesting questions. Let's hope it does not come to that.
As for President Trump, he has been voted out of office effective Jan 20th. No caretaker job beyond that date regardless of circumstances.
As for Vice-President-elect Harris she is an elected official, and one of the VP duties is to serve in lieu of the President should he become incapacitated or die.
AFAIK She would would simply be sworn in as President if anything were to happen to President-Elect Biden as stated in the presidential line of succession.

[CasperParks]

Predictions of what could happen if Section 230 is undone, changed, or something new is passed into law: Anonymity on the internet could become a thing of the past.

Background: In the United States Section 230 was passed into law in 1996. It more-or-less prevents social media companies from being sued for user posts. In recent years there is growing bipartisan support from Republicans and Democrats to undo or change the law, and or come up something new.

Prediction of what could happen if Section 230 is undone, changed, or something new is passed into law:

1) New user accounts for social media will be required to provide proof of identity. Perhaps uploading a photo ID like a driver license, state ID, school ID, passport, or another type of identification that is approved.

2) Current users of social media will be exempt, however if an account becomes suspended they will have to upload an ID to have their account unlocked. The reason to exempt current users is fear of a mass exodus from social media. A mass exodus has the potential to financially harm social media companies, hence abide by the rules or else...

3) VPN numbers and location blocking are at risk.

It is doubtful that the government will make VPN numbers and location blocking illegal... However, a boycott from social media companies could start. Social media companies could prevent people using VPN numbers and location blocking from using the websites.

Location blocking: For example to use a website, the user or visitor to the site must agree not to engage location blocking.

VPN: If it's not already being done, they will find a way to know if someone is using a VPN number. Social media companies could bar usage of VPN numbers at their websites.

Social media companies may already be doing some of the above, however it could expand if Section 230 is undone, changed, and or a new law is passed.

[pontificator]

You want the smoking gun for what can go wrong?
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0611174037.htm

Think very carefully on the implications of the results of this research.
Think very carefully on some newly released technologies, which are not fully tested or researched, and how they are being distributed to the worldwide population at large.
After all, what could possibly go wrong?

@EPO333, thanks for the PM that made me keep a closer eye on this. The timing is pretty spot on.

[pontificator]

Ah, here's another one which has popped up as a possible problem:


A classic damned if you do, damned if you don't. Out of the vaccines, I'd prefer the deactivated virus version, as it's less likely to have major problems.
Chris, who is presenting, has been across the subject of COVID19 before it was considered a problem. His educational videos and coverage of the topic are usually spot on.

[pontificator]

Current educated guesses for the rest of the year:
Increasing climate disturbances lead to a reduction in "quality of life", graduating to city killer status as we enter 2022, or during the first half of 2022; this is a guess based on what I'm noticing, hopefully it won't get that bad yet.
A day of reckoning for vaccines, the most effective ones will be marked by how little ongoing chaos occurs within their country of use. I suspect the modern technique versions will receive the most flak on this front, simply because they have seen less long-term development. Successor companies will likely perfect the technology after the founding ones have gone or given up.
Armed insurrection against previously stable governments, pick your cause here; his depends on how much a government pushes against its citizens and their perceived freedoms, pretty much a coin toss as to whether this really happens.
A massive increase in water supply instability as we go into 2022.
Food shortages potentially reaching noticeable levels late 2021 going into 2022.
Fusion power becoming practical; hey, we can hope